Betting strategy for 2019

How I’m going to play the horses in 2019

I treat every calendar year as a new beginning, starting from scratch on the 1st of January with my profit and loss back at zero. This gives me the hunger and desire to succeed and not just rest on previous years accumulated profits, you always need to keep improving in this game, gain new edges, refine successful methods and strategies, this keeps me ahead of the field.

Don’t surround yourself with negative people who say the bookie always wins, they don’t!
If you’re knowledgeable, employ professional methods, exercise patience and discipline then you’ll make long term profit. You need to see yourself as an entrepreneur who’s business is horse race betting not a gambler.

There are some excellent punters who get lots of winners but they don’t make money, some don’t even know if they are winning or losing! This is down to money management and being honest about your betting, you need to have a staking plan and record of all your bets. I use a spreadsheet and update it daily, analyse it and look for what you are good at and not, Flat, All-Weather, Jumps, Turf, Dirt, you’ll quickly identify a pattern, cut out the bad ‘fun’ bets’, there is no fun in losing, betting in the ‘get-out stakes’ there is no last race, it all starts again the next day.

The best bets you make are the ones you don’t make.

Before placing a bet set aside, a sum of money, which you can afford and is separate from the remainder of your assets and create a bank account solely for betting purposes, your Betting Bank. As an example, the account could be £1,000 and you bet win only singles staking £50 each time. If you double your betting bank, then double your stake. If and hopefully not, you half your bank account then half your stake. Following this method will allow you to sustain any long losing run.

With over 8000 races run in the UK each year it’s almost impossible to keep track of all form. After analysing my results from the previous years and identifying my biggest source of profits, I have decided to SPECIALISE my UK betting in 2019 solely on “All-Weather”, races run synthetic surfaces.

I found that the jumps have so many small fields, often of poor quality, especially mid-week and with the form well-established, there is no edge, the odds are mostly about right, my profits are so small it’s not worth the effort.

Summer Turf Flat racing, was my first love, nothing better than attending the big festivals and I still do but I’ve become soured both owning and punting fast horses that can quicken but finding their chances ruined by needless overwatering resulting in ground much softer than declared, it’s a minefield and having a major impact on my profits.  As a suggestion I’d ban watering tracks after the 48-hour declarations are made.

The All-Weather has taken a long time to become accepted and still has its doubters but the All-Weather Championship has increased the quality and it is now the norm that future Group 1 winners are debuted on these surfaces.  A fifth of all races run in the UK is run on the All-Weather so we have plenty of betting opportunities and mostly not weather impacted. I admit on these tracks there is significant draw bias and also pace bias but we can use this to our advantage especially when a jockey who is not a household name but knows these tracks much better than so called ‘top’ jockeys, these offer great value bets. Also, there are many sires who have incredibly high strike rates on these surfaces that isn’t widely published but I know them! I’m always noting new sires who are not well established but getting lots of early winners on the synthetic s compared to turf, by spotting these early I get lots of big priced winners.

 

I have long been a fan of US Racing, it started when Steve Cauthen become stable jockey to the late great Henry Cecil and would ride the other jockeys to sleep with his front running tactics as he knew the pace time fractions so well. Their speed style of racing suit my methods perfectly. It’s only been in the last few years we’ve been able to watch and bet on it in the UK. I can confidently say there is no UK Odds Compiler working for a bookie that knows more about US Racing than me and with little liquidity in the Exchange Markets to guide then they are making massive mistakes and I have been punishing them big time. I went through every month in 2018 unbeaten, everyone profitable, in total 582 Points Profit, if you bet £100 a point that’s £58k!

Jan 56.00, Feb 73.28, Mar 45.10, Apr 47.80, May 3.38, Jun 74.40, Jul 91.15, Aug 47.95, Sept 36.00, Oct 6.25, Nov 100.40, Dec 3.58

With profits like this you’ll soon be converted and grow to love it, I might even see you at the Breeders Cup.

How do it I do it?

My own ‘POWER’ ratings.

I never read a trade paper or newspaper tipsters, they are journalists not profession bettors, don’t be influenced by these people or TV presenters, they don’t put where money where their mouth is. Or tips from yards as they are biased to their own horses and don’t take a subjective view. You have to have your own unique opinion but this needs to be tangible.  It’s hard and time consuming but worth the effort. To help me I subscribe to TimeForm, they are well established and the best, I use their ratings as a basis from where to make my own, I call it my POWER rating.

There are several variables I use to adjust the base figure, my past notes on the horse’s previous track and trip biases, i.e. position assisted by a track / draw bias or had favourable trip such as on the lead of a walking pace, possibly got a combination of both, then I will make a negative adjustment, if compromised I will make a positive adjustment to the figure.

Another crucial variable is the jockey, horses have different styles of running, for example some are front runners, some have to ridden with restraint and come from off the pace so it is a help if a jockey knows these traits. Also, a mentioned earlier there are specialist AW jockeys that go under the radar. It always surprises me when trainers remain faithful to a stable jockey’s when it’s belatedly obvious their riding style doesn’t suit an individual horses running style or they ride that particular track badly, a positive rider change bring out massive improvement.

To understand track, trip basis, sport future winners and jockey traits you have to review the racing each day. Allocate one-hour race analysis time each evening to watch all the relevant replays, as I’ve said there is so many races and horses you need to specialise or you won’t have time to cover everything. One other thing to look out for when watching race replays is watch after the winning post, some horses finishing full of running and carry on galloping past horses, I take a positive note of this, alternatively some will stop dead right after the line, this is a negative, it’s had a hard race and will be opposable next time particularly if turned out quick. In general, I want to see a horse over taking as they are herd animals not all want to be leaders, some no matter how well they travel through a race they will never go past the leader. Always bet winners.

A key element is CLASS.  If the horse is racing in same race type class or even better lower after being dropped in the official ratings due to a ‘hidden’ bad performance then that’s a positive addition to the figure, if stepping up in class be wary, although it could be improving, every horse has a race class ceiling.  How many win a Group 1, very few!

One thing is a must, any potential bets POWER rating must be increasing, I will only bet improving horses never one with a steep declining POWER rating, horses have lots of physical ailments and can loss their from quickly, forget this nonsense about horses a stone lower than last winning mark so they are well handicapped, there is usually a reason and it’s gone at the game.

My final adjustment to the rating is fitness. I look for a pattern, some horses need time between their races and run best fresh while others stay in form only for a short time of the year. I use a 35 day rule, any absence longer than this and there might have been a problem. You want a fit and in form horse.

Now you have the horses POWER ratings, you might find one that is well ahead on the figures for the race but you need to understand how the race is going to be run. I draw a picture of how I think the race will unfold, who’ll make the pace, how many will be on the front end, will it be extreme pace, who will try and close late. This way you will highlight any possible trip bias, it also gives you great understanding of horse racing and makes you an expert handicapper.

After fully analysing a race, you have made your decision, you’ll back what you think will be the winner of a race, take any price, a winner is a winner. DON’T! Each horse’s true chance in a race cannot be scientifically verified. But you should be more disciplined, calculate a price you are prepared to take and don’t take anything less. You always hear people talking about value, but to me there is no way of calculating value. Value is a matter of personal opinion. A crude method of calculating the odds you are prepared to take, is to list all the potential rivals to your selection in the race. If there are only two look for approximately 3/1 or better. You will soon develop your own method and become good at forecast odds.

Hopefully you’ll now have an understanding of the time and effort you need to put in to become a successful horseplayer, it’s a great intellectual challenge and the rewards are worth it.

If you haven’t got the time to do it professionally, or you feel it will take a bit longer to acquire the necessary skills, let me do it for you. I have two services:

Select this link for details of how to join UK Shrewd Tipster Service, over 1700 Points Profit! http://hop.betfanplus.com/10050/0/view/295

Select this link for details how to join the USA Racing Club, over 1000 Points Profit!  http://hop.betfanplus.com/10050/1/view/130

Happy Punting
JW

 

 

 

 

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