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If you’re like the millions of punters who love a bet each day then I’m sure you’ll agree that being able to view and bet on American Horse Racing in the evening is welcomed sporting interest. Since we started in January 2017 we have only had two losing months, the most consistent betting advisory service ever! CLICK HERE For An Untapped Goldmine of USA Racing Profits. A horse is a horse and if it wins does it really matter what side of the pond it’s racing on?
How do I do it?
There are dozens of variables that can influence any race but the 5 key factors are:
FORM, CLASS, SPEED, RACE CONDITIONS & PACE
1. Current Form – the horse needs to be physically fit enough to win, any longer than 35 days since last race could be a problem, yes some horses run well off a lay off but your guessing, all horses in US stabled & trained on track & clockers record all workouts you get an excellent guide on who’s worked a recent bullet and ready to win but also who is working badly.
2. Class – the level the horse is running against, if been placed in same class of race it should be ok it’s when been upped in class they hit a ceiling, how many win Group 1s, very few. 3yo’s improve enormously and very quickly, also horses regress very quickly, they’re fragile very difficult to keep sound, once a horse has had 20 races they rarely improve much. Look for horses lightly raced with scope that is should to run to its rating & hopefully better.
3. Speed – Is it fast enough to win. Try making your own but it’s very time consuming and probably not accurate when others are available, I use the BEYER figures as starting point, these were invented by the great handicapper Andy Beyer & it took him years to develop, they’re in DRF.
4. Race Conditions – Turf or Dirt, in my experience horses prefer one surface very much over another and whether its firm/soft, fast/muddy, but also most tracks have bias so look at recent meeting results & races during the race day, if you can spot a bias before other punters such as a golden highway up the rail, or f suiting a particular running style i.e. front runner wiring the field easily or horses stopping and deep closers swooping late. You need to watch races live regularly & replays in the evening, look for horses race trips, particularly horses drawn or race wide made big effort 5 deep wide on home turn, they can be upgraded. Get them in your tracker.
5. PACE – imo the most crucial factor on any race, 3 or 4 front runners pace meltdown suits closer, but if can identify lone speed its my favourite bet. A horse loose on lead even if its a few points below on speed rating rarely stop, they seem to gain confidence and courage being leader of the herd. But I’ll take note of that even if it wins for me as will likely be overbet next time and not get as favourable pace setup, whereas one in behind might have had a bad trip, so even after a win think ahead. With experience you’ll get to know fast / slow fractions, these are the internal segments of a race and crucial to the outcome. Sprint races, which are run around one turn, no straight tracks in the US, are timed at the quarter mile, 2F, the half mile, 4F, and then the final segment. Route races, which usually go around two turns, are typically timed at the half mile, three-quarters of a mile, a mile and then the final segment if the race is longer than that. Fractions faster than 23 seconds in sprints and 24 seconds in routes are considered fast. These are very useful if your betting in-play but that’s another topic!
I subscribe to the Daily Racing Form, DRF.com, it’s the US equivalent to the Racing Post, here you will find each horses PPs, Past Performances, Workouts, Beyer Figs, etc. It can look quite complex and daunting to begin with but you can download free samples so you become familiar with using them. Another very useful piece of information is Profitable Trainer Angles. Think most punters know Chad Brown is top trainer in the East Coast and Bob Baffert king in the West Coast but are they profitable? Most trainers are creatures of habit and what we are looking for is not the one with the highest earnings or biggest win percentage but who gives us our best R.O.I (Return on Investment). There are many angles, such as 1st of the claim, blinkers, Lasix, switch in surface, sprint to route, loads of stats available for you. Likewise some jockey’s dominate their local tracks but don’t travel well. It’s all about building your knowledge of all the variables, it’s not easy & time consuming but the rewards are worth it.
The Pick 4 is my favourite bet & have had some amazing returns.
|There are many different wager types offered by US horse racing tracks.
Below is the most common wager types offered:
Win: The simplest bet you can make on a horse race. A Win bet is an attempt to predict the horse that will win the race. If the horse wins, you will collect on your bet. The odds listed for the horses on the toteboard are the Win odds for each horse. For example, if a horse shows ‘5’ on the toteboard, if you bet him to Win for $2, you will get back $12 (5 times $2 plus your original $2 bet). This $2 payoff of $12 would also be shown on the result payoffs under the Win column (1st column) for the horse when the race is official.
Place: Similar to the Win bet, a Place bet on a horse is a bet that the horse will finish in first or second. If the horse does finish in one of the top two spots, you will collect the amount shown in the Place column (2nd column) for that horse on the result payoffs for each $2 you have bet. If you make a Place bet, note that it does not matter if the horse wins or comes in second, you will win the same amount. This bet has less risk than a Win bet, but also a smaller reward. If you are confident the horse will win the race, you will receive a larger return betting the horse to Win.
Show: Another variety of a straight bet, the Show bet is used when you want to bet that a horse will finish in the top 3 positions in the race. For every $2 bet on the horse to Show, you will collect the amount shown in the Show column (3rd column) for that horse on the results payoffs. Again, if the horse comes in first or second, you will not win any more money than if the horse finishes third. This is the safest of the straight bets but also offers the smallest return. If you are confident the horse will finish better than third, you would have a larger return placing a Win or Place bet.
Combination Straight Bets
Across the Board (Win/Place/Show): This is a combination of the Win, Place, and Show wagers. If you bet a horse “across the board” you are effectively betting him to Win, Place, and Show. If the horse wins, you collect on all 3 bets. If the horse comes in 2nd, you collect the Place and Show payoffs. If the horse comes in 3rd, you collect on the Show bet only. Since this is actually 3 bets combined, a $2 bet “across the board” will cost $6.
Win/Place, Place/Show: These are simply 2 bet combinations of Win/Place and Place/Show, respectively. For a $2 bet, they cost $4.
Exotic Bets: Single Race
Exacta/Perfecta/Exactor: One of the simplest single-race exotic bets, the Exacta is the combination of predicting the winning horse and the second-place horse, in order. This will pay more than betting either of the horses to win or place. A $2 bet on an Exacta will pay out the amount shown for an Exacta bet on the wager payoffs after the race is official.
Quinella: Similar to the Exacta, but this does not require the bettor to predict the order of the top two horses. Simply put, the bettor only has to pick the horses which will finish in the top two places, but does not have to predict which of those two will actually win the race. Since this is easier to predict than an Exacta, it also pays less than the Exacta (typically it pays about half of the Exacta payoff).
Trifecta/Triactor: The Trifecta takes the Exacta a step further. It requires the bettor to pick the horses, in order, that finish in the top 3 positions in the race. It is significantly harder to predict than an Exacta, and accordingly will pay out much more for a winning bet. A $2 bet on a Trifecta will pay out the amount shown for the Trifecta on the wager payoffs after the race is official.
Superfecta: The most difficult of the single-race exotics, the Superfecta, requires the bettor to predict the first four finishers, in order. Predicting a Superfecta is very difficult and will always require the bettor to take different combinations of horses so that there are more chances of winning. The payoff for a Superfecta is generally very high, and is typically shown on the wager payoffs based on a $1 bet.
Exotic Bets: Multiple Races
Double: A Double is the simplest type of wager that spans multiple races. It requires the bettor to pick the winner in two consecutive races. Most tracks usually offer an Early Double (Races 1 & 2) and a Late Double (last two races on the card). There are also tracks that offer Double’s in the middle of a card. If there is a Double available to be bet on, there will be a note of it on the first race (or leg) of the Double wager. The $2 payoff for a Double will be shown on the results for the second leg of the wager.
Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 6 (Classix): These bets are all similar to the Double wager, only differing in the amount of consecutive races that a bettor needs to predict the winner. The larger the number, the harder it is to pick, as well as the greater the payoff. For these bets, it is recommended to take several combinations of horses in each race to increase your chances of winning (although this also increases the cost). Many race tracks have at least one or two available Pick 3’s and/or Pick 4’s on a card. Some tracks also offer one Pick 6 per card. If there is available Pick 3/4/6 to bet on, there will be a note of it on the first race (or leg) of the wager. The payoff for one of these bets will be shown on the results for the last leg of the wager. For Pick 3s and Pick 4s, if nobody has the required number of races correct, they will typically pay out for people who missed one less race. For example, if nobody predicted a Pick 4 correctly, people who had 3 of 4 correct will get paid. In addition, the payoff results would indicate a payoff for “Pick 4 (3 of 4 correct)”. For a Pick 6, typically the track will also give a small payoff to bettors who had 5 of 6 correct. However, if nobody had all 6 correct, the majority of the Pick 6 pool will be carried over to the next racing day, making the subsequent Pick 6 pool even larger.
Place Pick All: This bet is similar to a Pick-x bet, except that you need a horse to place (come in 1st or 2nd) in each race, instead of to win. With a Place Pick All bet, you must pick a place horse in EVERY race on the card (usually 8 or 9 races).